Abstract

In 2010, Statham and colleagues introduced the conceptual model of avalanche hazard (CMAH; Statham et al., 2018) to make avalanche bulletin production in North America more transparent and consistent. Since the CMAH did not provide a prescriptive link between hazard assessments and avalanche danger ratings, forecasters need to rely on their own judgment to assign danger ratings, which can lead to inconsistencies in public avalanche risk communication. The present paper aims to address this missing link by exploring the relationship between avalanche hazard assessments and danger ratings within Canadian avalanche bulletins since the introduction of the CMAH. Using conditional inference trees, key decision rules that forecasters utilize to assign avalanche danger rating in Canada are extracted. Our results offer insight on how Canadian public forecasters assigned danger ratings and provide an evidence-based platform for discussing inconsistency and addressing them through the development of meaningful decision-aids.

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